Stephen E. Biegun Senior Vice President, Global Public Policy | Boeing
Emerging markets are set to significantly influence global air traffic growth, according to Boeing's latest forecast. The company projects a need for 43,600 commercial airplanes over the next two decades, with these markets expected to represent over half of the global commercial fleet by 2044. This is an increase from nearly 40% in 2024.
Ahead of the Paris Air Show, Boeing released its 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which anticipates that airplane supply will align with market demand by the decade's end. This alignment will allow carriers to renew and expand their fleets.
Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing, Brad McMullen, noted the industry's resilience: “Throughout the first quarter of this century, passenger air traffic tripled and the global airplane fleet more than doubled as the commercial aviation industry navigated significant challenges,” he said. “Resilience will remain a hallmark of this growing industry as we continue to see strong demand for new airplanes with commercial aviation returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.”
The CMO forecasts annual passenger traffic growth at 4.2%, which is more than double its current size and outpaces global economic growth. The global fleet is expected to nearly double to over 49,600 commercial airplanes as airlines boost capacity.
Approximately 80% of in-service airplanes will be replaced with over 21,000 new deliveries aimed at improving efficiency and capability. Single-aisle airplanes are projected to make up 72% of the global fleet by then, largely due to short-haul travel demands in emerging markets.
Additionally, the widebody passenger fleet is predicted to grow significantly in emerging markets focused on expanding long-haul capabilities. Supply chain diversification and expanding express cargo networks are expected to drive a near two-thirds expansion of the freighter fleet.
Airline networks have increased airport pair connections by about 30% compared to a decade ago, offering more non-stop flight options. Travel spending has returned to pre-pandemic levels as consumers prioritize air travel.
Since its inception in 1961, Boeing's CMO has been recognized as one of the most comprehensive analyses within the commercial aviation sector. The full outlook can be accessed at boeing.com/cmo.