James P. Gorman, Executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley | Columbia Business School
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management today announced results from its quarterly individual investor pulse survey.
Amid record market highs, bullishness remains elevated. 61% of investors are bullish this quarter, in line with last quarter's 60%.
Higher prices continue to be a concern. Inflation remains the top concern for investors (54%), followed by the 2024 election (34%), market volatility (22%), and a recession (20%).
Investors are skeptical about rate cuts. Less than half (48%) believe the U.S. economy is healthy enough for the Fed to cut rates this quarter, down from 51% last quarter.
However, the majority believe cuts are on the horizon. 54% believe the Fed will cut rates in the second half of the year.
Many believe the market will continue to rise before Q4. Over half of investors (59%) predict the market will rise by the end of the third quarter.
“It’s understandable to see bullishness remaining steady this quarter as the market pushed higher driven by mega-caps,” said Chris Larkin, Managing Director, Head of Trading and Investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. “On the flipside, the narrow market could make some traders jittery especially when compounded by a higher for longer rate stance from the Fed. So, it’s easy to see how investors can have mixed emotions about where we stand when it comes to the market and the economy.”
The survey explored investor views on sector opportunities for Q3 2024:
- Information Technology: Tech continues to take the leading spot for investor interest, as mega-cap tech names dominate, with chips and AI space holding its ground.
- Energy: As oil prices trended higher, positive views of energy stocks mounted this quarter.
- Health Care: Amid political and economic uncertainty, investors continue to look at health care—a traditionally defensive sector—although interest dipped from last quarter by 2 percentage points as the market moved higher.
This wave of the survey was conducted from July 1 to July 16 of 2024 among an online US sample of 891 self-directed investors and those who delegate investment account management to financial professionals or utilize both. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.20 percent at a 95 percent confidence level and was administered by Dynata.
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