The U.S. property/casualty industry experienced its second consecutive year of underwriting losses in 2023, with a net combined ratio of 101.6. Despite an improvement compared to 2022, personal lines remained the primary contributor to unprofitability in 2023. The latest industry underwriting projections by actuaries at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman anticipate that premium growth will further enhance underwriting results in 2024, forecasting a net combined ratio of 100.2 for the P/C industry.

Dale Porfilio, FCAS, MAAA, chief insurance officer at Triple-I, shared insights on the overall P&C industry underwriting projections and premium growth. "The overall picture from prior quarters remains the same with commercial lines performing better than personal, but to a lesser extent," he said. Porfilio noted that while still unprofitable, personal lines improved by 3.2 points relative to 2022.

Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman – a premier global consulting and actuarial firm – discussed the deteriorating commercial auto underwriting results post-COVID-19 pandemic. “The improved underwriting results following the COVID-19 pandemic appear to have been short-lived,” Kurtz said.

Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA, chief actuary at the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI), highlighted the extraordinary performance of workers’ compensation system in recent years.

Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, chief economist and data scientist at Triple-I provided insights on how P/C replacement costs are increasing at a slower pace than the overall U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). He also mentioned that personal and commercial auto replacement costs decreased outright in early 2024 due to significant decreases for used auto prices.

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