The U.S. property/casualty (P/C) insurance industry started 2025 with mixed prospects, according to a report from the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman. The "Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View" report highlights personal auto insurance as a positive area, while general liability insurance faces profitability challenges.
For personal auto, the net combined ratio (NCR) for 2025 is forecasted at 96.0, slightly higher than in 2024 but still profitable. In contrast, homeowners' insurance was impacted by the Los Angeles wildfires in January 2025, resulting in significant losses.
General liability saw its second-worst first-quarter loss ratio in over 15 years, indicating ongoing concerns about profitability. The overall net written premium growth rate for 2025 is projected at 6.8%, marking a decline from previous years.
Michel Léonard of Triple-I noted that the P/C industry's economic growth drivers continue to outperform U.S. GDP growth despite tariffs and trade uncertainty. However, he warned of potential economic contraction impacting the industry starting in early 2026.
Jason B. Kurtz from Milliman highlighted that commercial auto remains unprofitable through 2027 despite strong premium growth estimates for 2025. He also noted slight improvements expected in general liability NCRs by 2026-2027.
Stephen Cooper from the National Council on Compensation Insurance discussed labor market impacts on workers’ compensation systems amidst economic uncertainties and recession concerns.
The quarterly report is available exclusively to Triple-I members and Milliman customers but can be requested by media for reporting purposes.