The U.S. property/casualty (P/C) insurance market showed improved underwriting results in 2024, with expectations for continued growth in 2025 and 2026, according to a report by the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman. The report, titled "Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View," indicates that further premium growth is likely if geopolitical and economic conditions remain stable.
In 2024, P/C underlying economic growth was slightly below the U.S. GDP growth at 2.3% compared to 2.5%. However, projections for 2025 and 2026 suggest P/C growth will surpass overall GDP growth. The number of people employed in the U.S. insurance industry also exceeded three million during this period.
The P/C net combined ratio (NCR) estimate improved by 2.2 points year-over-year to reach 99.5, while net written premium (NWP) increased by an estimated 9.5%. Personal lines saw an NCR improvement due to better-than-expected performance in personal auto during Q3, whereas commercial lines experienced an increase due to challenges in commercial property and general liability.
Michel Léonard from Triple-I noted that P/C underlying economic growth is expected to remain above GDP growth in the coming years as lower interest rates boost real estate activity.
"This is an improvement on our 2025 P/C underlying growth expectations from second half of 2024," he said.
Dale Porfilio of Triple-I highlighted that although commercial lines have better underwriting results than personal lines, natural catastrophes like Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton significantly impacted commercial property.
Jason B. Kurtz from Milliman expressed concerns about profitability within commercial lines, particularly noting that "commercial auto continues to remain unprofitable."
Emma Stewart from Lloyds discussed deterioration in U.S. general liability loss ratios driven by social inflation trends such as legal system abuse.
Donna Glenn from NCCI provided insights into workers' compensation trends, indicating a moderate average loss cost decrease for 2025 which will affect overall net written premiums.
"Payroll for 2025 will develop throughout the year resulting from both wage and employment levels," Glenn stated.
The report is available exclusively to Triple-I members and Milliman customers but can be requested by media representatives for reporting purposes only.