An analysis by Polymarket charting Bitcoin’s ($BTC) price against former President Donald Trump’s election odds announced a potential surge in Bitcoin’s value in the event of a Trump victory. 

By studying data from August 15 to October 20, gathered from Polymarket—a prediction market platform—analysts noted significant fluctuations in both Trump’s chances and Bitcoin’s price, with the largest swings occurring when Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump alternated in polling leads.

The analysis uses "merger arbitrage-style probability math," a sophisticated financial model typically applied in corporate mergers, to project that a Trump victory could push Bitcoin’s price to approximately $92,000.

“By applying probability-based calculations to the correlation between Trump’s election odds and Bitcoin price movement, the data strongly suggests that Trump’s leadership could fuel a substantial Bitcoin rally,” said Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise.

"The United States will be the crypto capital of the planet and the bitcoin superpower of the world," said Trump in a recent speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Convention.

This projection highlights the relationship between political outcomes and cryptocurrency performance. Supporters of Bitcoin and other digital assets have pointed to Trump's deregulation policies and openness toward cryptocurrency as favorable for the market. A second Trump administration may potentially lead to policies further enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value amid global economic uncertainties.

According to a Social Capital Markets report, The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) increased its penalties on the cryptocurrency industry in 2024, with fines jumping from $150.26 million in 2023 to $4.68 billion—a rise of 3018%.

The report said from 2013 to 2024, crypto firms and individuals have been fined over $7.42 billion, with 63% of these penalties issued in 2024 alone.