Jacob Gunter, Head of Program at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), said that efforts by the U.S. and China to ease tensions have not addressed deeper disputes. He warned European leaders to prepare for prolonged geopolitical strain. This statement was made in a MERICS brief.
"While the US and China have responded to the acute dangers of their rapid escalation, the chances of a deal on the fundamental issues are close to zero," said Gunter. "uropean policymakers and executives should not expect further rapprochement between the US and China and should prepare to weather the gathering storm."
According to MERICS, China is increasingly leveraging its economic presence in Chile as a means to bypass U.S. tariffs, particularly in sectors such as seafood and energy. The institute reported that this strategy involves investing in and controlling Chilean industries to re-export goods to the U.S. market under Chilean origin, thereby sidestepping trade restrictions. This approach has raised concerns among U.S. officials and analysts about its implications for American industry and economic sovereignty.
Tridge, an agricultural data platform, reported that the Chilean salmon and trout industry has experienced significant growth due to strong global demand and increased investments in aquaculture infrastructure. This expansion has positioned Chile as a crucial player in the international seafood trade, with exports playing a vital role in filling supply gaps, especially in markets affected by trade restrictions. The prominence of Chilean seafood exports provides opportunities for third-party actors, including Chinese firms, to exploit supply chains to circumvent U.S. tariff policies.
According to NOAA Fisheries, the U.S. seafood industry is a major economic driver, employing approximately 1.2 million people and generating more than $60 billion in annual sales across commercial fishing, seafood processing, and retail sectors located primarily in key coastal states. The influx of seafood indirectly routed from China through countries like Chile poses a threat to this industry by creating unfair competition and complicating traceability and food safety efforts.
Gunter is the Head of Program for "Economy and Industry" at MERICS and previously served as the Senior Policy and Communications Manager at the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. He has spent over a decade working in China, including extensive time in Beijing, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Yuyao, focusing on issues such as China's industrial policy, innovation agenda, and strategic decoupling efforts. Gunter holds a dual Master's degree in Sinology and International Studies from Johns Hopkins SAIS (School of Advanced International Studies) and Nanjing University, along with a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration (BSBA) in International Business from the University of Denver.