McKinsey & Co. recently released a report exploring the long-term issues that students and the U.S. as a whole may face as a result of being subjected to prolonged school closures and virtual learning resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The report theorizes that being subjected to prolonged school closures could negatively impact student achievement and development over their entire lives. Students from traditionally disadvantaged backgrounds may be especially vulnerable.
The achievement gap between white students and Black and Hispanic students has been a persistent issue in the U.S. education system. On average, Black and Hispanic students remain roughly two years behind white students. Prolonged school shutdowns may potentially widen existing gaps for these students, causing more of them to drop out.
This could lead to negative long-term damage, not only to their economic prosperity but for the nation’s economy as well. In 2009, McKinsey & Co. estimated that the achievement gap costs the U.S. economy hundreds of billions of dollars annually in productivity, the equivalent of a permanent economic recession.
According to scenarios that McKinsey & Co. conducted, most currently available virtual learning is likely to be less effective than traditional schooling, and in many states where distance learning has not been mandated, many students may not receive any instruction at all until schools reopen.
Low-income, Black and Hispanic students would likely be the most affected by this learning loss as a result of having less access to high-quality remote learning or to environments and lacking infrastructure conducive to learning remotely. This learning loss might exacerbate existing achievement gaps
In addition to learning loss, COVID-19 disrupts many of the supports that can help vulnerable kids stay in school: academic engagement and achievement, strong relationships with caring adults and supportive home environments. The loss of these supports would possibly lead to an increase in high school dropout rates.
Learning loss and higher dropout rates may translate into long-term harm for individuals and society. The average American K–12 student could lose tens of thousands of dollars in lifetime earnings. These losses would be magnified for Black and Hispanic Americans.
The losses are not just economic issues. Multiple studies have linked greater educational achievement to improved health, reduced crime and incarceration levels, and increased political participation.
These individual losses would translate to wider losses for the United States as a whole. With lower levels of learning and higher numbers of dropouts as a result of educational measures taken in response to the coronavirus, students will probably be less skilled and less productive than students from generations not experiencing a similar learning gap.
By 2040, most of the current K–12 cohort will be in the workforce. McKinsey & Co. estimates a GDP loss of 0.8 to 1.3%, which translates to $173 billion to $271 billion a year. McKinsey & Co. urges the United States to act quickly to avoid the worst possible outcomes.
School systems must innovate to encourage ongoing learning over the summer. Ideas might include expanding existing summer-school programs, encouraging agencies that run summer camps and youth programs to add academics to summer programs and enlisting corporations to identify and train volunteer tutors.
It will be necessary to work with educators to urge them to raise the quality of remote instruction, to encourage parents to help create good learning environments at home, to call upon social- and mental-health services so they can support students coping with pandemic-related stress and to ensure that all students have the infrastructure (electronic devices and good broadband) necessary for remote learning.