Indiana would have adequate revenues to manage a moderate economic downturn without raising taxes or cutting services, according to a new analysis from Moody’s Analytics.

If a moderate recession were to strike, Indiana would have 3.6 percent of its total 2019 revenues available, the analysis says. That’s the 13th best outcome among the 50 states, according to Moody’s Analytics.

That state’s current rainy-day balance represents 8.4 percent of its 2019 revenues, the study found. The severity of the fiscal shock the state would face in a moderate recession would equal 9.8 percent of the 2019 funds, according to the study. 

Twenty-eight states were found to have adequate revenues to weather such a downturn in the future, the study said. But 10 states would have significantly less money on hand than they would need.

The stress test numbers show that states on average would need funds equaling 11.3 percent of their general fund revenues to weather the recession without tax hikes or service cuts, according to Moody’s Analytics. 

Fiscal shock estimates can vary depending on a state's tax structure and the makeup of its economy, the study found. States with greater dependence on energy development and tourism, for instance, tend to be more vulnerable to recessionary upheavals, the report said

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State Fiscal Preparedness in a Moderate Recession

Rank	State	Rainy-Day Balances	Total Balances	Fiscal Shock	Rainy-Day Surplus / Shortfall	Total Surplus / Shortfall
1	Wyoming	138.3%	138.8%	-8.5%	129.9%	129.9%
2	Alaska	134.3%	120.5%	-39.3%	95.0%	81.1%
3	North Dakota	41.7%	45.3%	-21.8%	19.8%	23.5%
4	Oregon	11.6%	25.6%	-7.0%	4.6%	18.6%
5	Texas	20.8%	28.2%	-12.4%	8.4%	15.8%
6	West Virginia	16.0%	23.2%	-9.2%	6.8%	14.0%
7	Nevada	7.7%	22.7%	-10.7%	-3.0%	12.0%
8	Delaware	5.4%	17.2%	-8.5%	-3.2%	8.7%
9	New Mexico	8.7%	16.4%	-8.8%	-0.1%	7.6%
10	Alabama	9.4%	15.2%	-10.0%	-0.6%	5.2%
11	Minnesota	10.6%	13.3%	-8.8%	1.8%	4.5%
12	Iowa	9.9%	12.3%	-8.6%	1.3%	3.7%
13	Indiana	8.4%	13.5%	-9.8%	-1.4%	3.6%
14	Hawaii	4.9%	12.7%	-9.2%	-4.3%	3.5%
15	California	13.0%	16.5%	-13.1%	-0.1%	3.4%
16	South Dakota	10.7%	10.7%	-7.5%	3.2%	3.2%
17	Nebraska	7.0%	13.5%	-10.4%	-3.5%	3.0%
18	Connecticut	10.0%	12.6%	-10.1%	-0.1%	2.5%
19	South Carolina	6.3%	16.6%	-14.2%	-7.9%	2.4%
20	Utah	8.8%	11.1%	-9.0%	-0.2%	2.1%
21	Georgia	11.1%	11.1%	-9.7%	1.4%	1.4%
22	Maryland	4.9%	9.3%	-8.3%	-3.4%	1.0%
23	Arizona	4.3%	12.2%	-11.7%	-7.4%	0.5%
24	Maine	7.5%	10.6%	-10.3%	-2.8%	0.3%
25	Tennessee	5.8%	11.2%	-11.0%	-5.1%	0.2%
26	Vermont	11.8%	11.8%	-11.7%	0.1%	0.1%
27	Washington	7.2%	9.7%	-9.6%	-2.4%	0.0%
28	Missouri	3.3%	9.8%	-10.4%	-7.0%	-0.5%
29	North Carolina	5.2%	8.5%	-9.6%	-4.4%	-1.1%
30	Idaho	13.2%	16.4%	-17.7%	-4.5%	-1.3%
31	New York	2.9%	8.9%	-10.3%	-7.4%	-1.4%
32	Ohio	8.1%	10.6%	-12.2%	-4.1%	-1.6%
33	Kansas	0.0%	9.3%	-11.2%	-11.2%	-1.9%
34	Colorado	9.2%	9.2%	-11.1%	-1.9%	-1.9%
35	Michigan	11.3%	13.6%	-16.5%	-5.2%	-2.8%
36	Massachusetts	5.5%	5.7%	-9.4%	-4.0%	-3.8%
37	Montana	1.9%	8.8%	-12.7%	-10.8%	-3.8%
38	Virginia	5.8%	6.0%	-10.3%	-4.5%	-4.3%
39	Rhode Island	5.1%	5.1%	-9.8%	-4.7%	-4.7%
40	Wisconsin	1.9%	6.1%	-10.9%	-9.0%	-4.8%
41	Florida	4.4%	9.3%	-14.9%	-10.5%	-5.6%
42	New Hampshire	7.7%	7.7%	-13.8%	-6.1%	-6.1%
43	Arkansas	2.7%	3.8%	-10.2%	-7.4%	-6.3%
44	Mississippi	5.6%	5.6%	-12.3%	-6.7%	-6.7%
45	Pennsylvania	0.1%	0.1%	-7.5%	-7.4%	-7.4%
46	New Jersey	0.0%	2.9%	-10.4%	-10.4%	-7.5%
47	Oklahoma	5.9%	8.6%	-16.1%	-10.2%	-7.5%
48	Kentucky	1.1%	1.1%	-10.0%	-8.8%	-8.0%
49	Illinois	0.0%	1.0%	-10.9%	-8.8%	-8.8%
50	Louisiana	3.7%	7.0%	-18.9%	-15.2%	-11.9%

Source: Moody’s Analytics